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Beware the birds

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March 2007

The risk of avian influenza may be high, but the risk of market panic as a result is even higher. Either way, the economic effects could be devastating

An outbreak of avian influenza amongst humans will happen sooner or later, it is virtually a mathematical certainty.

The H5N1 virus is going through a process of trial and error that will eventually see it able to jump easily between mammals. It is just a matter of time before it develops a shape best suited to bypass the immune systems of animals like pigs and, perhaps shortly after, humans. And that will be the beginning.

This outbreak may or may not be very virulent; ...

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