Opportunity knocks
By Almerindo Portfolio July 6th, 2006The missiles that North Korea test-launched over the Sea of Japan have presented China with a choice it wishes it didn’t have to make. It is the choice between joining the rest of the world (save Russia) in trying earnestly to bring North Korea into modernity, or staying the current course towards inevitable conflict.
So far, sadly, the leaders in Beijing show no signs of moving beyond symbolic language. Naturally, they have condemned the tests. But they have also urged restraint in the face of American and Japanese calls for economic sanctions, and their official statements after the launch were carefully worded so as not to offend Kim Jong-Il and his band of miserable pranksters.
Too bad, because China could seize this opportunity to relieve itself of the constant pressure it is feeling from the US over its heated economy. Were China to put real pressure on North Korea, get Pyongyang back to the negotiating tables and actually produce some results, they would have enormous leverage to say to America: we’ve done you a favor, now you do us one and back off on all this revaluation noise. By doing nothing, it risks angering the US even more, and hence drawing more attention to its undervalued currency and swelling foreign reserves. What’s a rising power to do? Try throwing its weight around in its own region.




July 7th, 2006 at 9:17 am
Good point. One can only imagine how many points China’s stepping up re North Korea would earn it in the U.S. and how effective this would be in quieting China trade critics.
July 7th, 2006 at 11:39 pm
I agree that China could use its cooperation over North Korea to get the Bush administration to lay off the pressure over currency valuation. However, China has probably learned by now that, no matter how well they get along with America’s executive branch, they’ll never be able to please Congress. Indeed, the Bush adminstration seems to have already lightened the pressure on China regarding currency. However, Congress has not, and the pressure will only grow as mid-term elections approach.
That said, China, along with its ersatz pal Russia, relishes having a foreign policy that is increasingly built around advocating pretty much the opposite of whatever America does. When they can count on America’s consistently acting early and often, they don’t have to spend too much time thinking about what their foreign policy ought to be.
In the end, however, America holds the greatest trump card over China in regard to North Korea. Two words: nuclear Japan.