Speculative clampdown - blame the laowai
By Nathan Green July 21st, 2006Long awaited rules curbing foreign investment in China’s real estate market have apparently been released to real estate firms although they are yet to be officially announced.
Under the rules, individuals must reside in China for one year before buying property, while companies – and institutional buyers – must be registered in China, with registered capital of 50% of the purchase price, up from 33%.
Morgan Stanley, which plans to triple its investment in Chinese property to US$3 billion this year, is apparently the first to lose out under the new regime. According to a well-placed source, the company has been ordered to comply with the new rules before the regulator will give approval for an acquisition that the institutional investor likely felt was already in the bag.
The move comes as Beijing tries to dampen investment in speculative high-end property and encourage the development of affordable housing.
A Ministry of Construction survey this year found the average size of new flats in 16 main cities was more than 120 square meters, much bigger than what an ordinary household could afford. Homebuyers have grown increasingly annoyed at soaring prices - a Beijing Normal University study found 70% of China’s urban residents could not afford to buy a new apartment, based on average housing prices in east China.
Overall housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose 5.8% year-on-year in May, after climbing 5.6% in April and 5.4% in March. Prices for new properties climbed 6.1% year-on-year in the same period. At the same time, 123 million square meters of real estate remained unsold at the end of March, up 23.8% on the first quarter of 2005. In the residential sector, 69.8 million square meters of housing lay empty, representing about 700,000 unoccupied apartments.
As prices get further and further out of the grasp of domestic buyers, and apartments remain unsold, developers are increasingly trying to target offshore buyers. The strategy has proved successful, with foreign investment transactions in the mainland real estate market totaling US$5.4 billion in the first quarter this year, more than triple the same period last year.
It is this flow of money that the regulator feels is creating a situation whereby prices are climbing despite market force of supply and demand. In the absence of a market correction, the government feels it has a duty to step in.
It is easy to blame foreigners when the going gets too good. Rather than clamping down on the free flow of capital, the government should move faster to open up alternative investment channels.
According to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle last year, some 21.1% of China’s newly rich urban citizens - a total of about 15 million individuals - said they preferred to invest in real estate than bank savings or stocks.
Alternative investment instruments provide a much better hope for cooling real estate flames than any amount of government tinkering and finger pointing.
Watch now as the foreign investors find a way around the new barriers, and watch as prices continue to rise - just as fast as the new, unoccupied apartments.




July 24th, 2006 at 11:20 pm
People (developed world) are chasing returns everywhere and anywhere..Although chinese real estate may be a long term good buy I have to think in the short run anyway these foreigners who are buying condos in china now are nothing but suckers..Likely much of this excess inventory will be cut up to smaller apartments (when foreigners stop buying and also cant unload) and the chinese and maybe some smart foreigners will get a good deal then.. Real estate historically anyway is not the fantastic investment people think, factoring inflation into the mix..
July 26th, 2006 at 6:51 am
I like your assessments..may I be added to your newsletter list please?
ptenn@hotmail.com
July 28th, 2006 at 11:05 am
A Liberal minded Party official told me in shanghai this week that there were two things driving this policy.
1) the fact that the Chinese government are openly manipulating the RMB for trade purposes thus leading to foreigners being able to get undervalued capital assets on the mainland when buyiung undervalued RMB with their foreign currency.
2) if there is a profit to be made on property (as property in the major cities is undervalued relative to the ambition of this country), chinese people should be making that profit, not laowai.
Even the chinese know that this policy has little effect on slowing the rising property prices or making property more affordable for first time buyers. Foreigners only account for a microscopic percentage of the market.
EF
July 31st, 2006 at 9:48 pm
Read July 29 issue of Barron’s on China.. Alot to worry about there..
August 8th, 2006 at 8:48 pm
Back many years ago there was a bubble in sardines…someone purchased a can and opened it to eat.. the sardines were bad and the man went back to complain.. The man who sold the sardines to him said “those sardines werent for eatting those was for trading.. and here we have the chinese market– a bubble epitimized by the statement in the above post: ” as property in the major cities is undervalued relative to the ambition of this country”.
what will happen after the bubble in china pops.. either rampant and bad deflation like in 1989 japan.. or inflation, which also would be bad in china, bc inflation was a factor behind the populace getting behind the students in the tienamien incident..im leaning toward inflation from what ive read… the chinese government indirectly own alot of this overinvestment due to its indirect ownership of the banks and they’ll likely not sell the assets at fire sale prices which would happen in the US if the assets were collateralized by loans from a bank.. instead they’ll print money to prevent deflation.. 40% of the average man in china’s income is consumed on the purchase of food.. if china gets alot of inflation watch out.. either way.. i say wait for crash before jumping in..