Strait talk
By Almerindo Portfolio December 4th, 2006Robert Gates, almost certain to become the new US Secretary of Defense, did not mince words at his Senate confirmation hearings:
“We should maintain our capabilities to resist China’s use of force or coercion against Taiwan and assist Taipei in maintaining its self-defense,” Gates said.
Gates wrote that while Beijing appears to want a peaceful merger with Taiwan, China’s “near-term focus is on generating sufficient combat power to rapidly erode Taiwan’s will to resist and to deter or deny effective intervention in a cross-strait conflict,” Associated Press reported.
Just what Sino-American relations needs, another reactionary blowhard with zero tact. These statements are completely unproductive. Yes, China is building its military capacity. So has every other nation in their transition from third-world backwater to first-world economic powerhouse. America can’t prevent it just by wishing it away. The US needs China a lot more than it needs Taiwan. This has been more true every year since Nixon met Mao. It’s time to admit as much.
Why can’t my government employ more civil servants of the Hank Paulson mold? Paulson deals with China the way the Chinese like to be dealt with - that’s why he’s been effective and will continue to be so (provided his boss doesn’t overrule his methods). No one ever got their way in China by stubbornly repeating demands as if they were admonishing a child. When will Uncle Sam start applying the lessons of history?
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December 4th, 2006 at 9:33 am
I didn’t think Gates’s comments sounded like anything out of the ordinary from any US defense official, particularly one whose task at the time was assuring senators that he would continue to pursue policies in keeping with laws on the books in America (the US is still obligated by its own law
to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an attack by the mainland). You never hear Hank Paulson talking about this because the Taiwan issue has nothing to do with him.
The language Gates used wasn’t out of line - it’s simply boilerplate for someone seeking that office. In that first quote he’s basically saying maintain the status quo, which means continuing to help Taiwan maintain its defenses, and intervene if it is attacked by the PRC. This has been the situation for the last 34 years. As far as the second quote, it’s pretty much the standard understanding of China’s strategy in the defense/intelligence community (see link below), and one I doubt that Chinese generals would dispute. A violent conflict isn’t viewed as the only, or even the most likely outcome (the paper linked below says Beijing prefers a peaceful outcome, but hasn’t ruled out attack), but still a possibility that should be prepared for.
He is not, in my opinion, saying that the US should ramp up efforts to defend Taiwan any more than he’s saying it should let the situation resolve itself (nor should he).
Don’t get me wrong: the jury is still out on what kind of SOD Gates will be. He may be a maniac, he may be a reasonable guy. But I can’t imagine the most level-headed, moderate appointee to that position ever getting past the Senate confirmation by saying any less than what he did.
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China%20Report%202006.pdf
(p38)
Beijing’s Options for Action against Taiwan
The PLA is developing capabilities that will enable it to pursue several courses of action against Taiwan, allowing Beijing to apply pressure more fl exibly against the island and, it believes, minimize the risks of confrontation with the United States. The PLA is simultaneously developing the capability to deter and/or slow third party, including U.S., intervention to assist Taiwan; to defeat such intervention in an asymmetric, limited, quick war; or, fight to a standstill and pursue a protracted conflict.
(p39)
Air and Missile Campaign. Surprise SRBM attacks and precision air strikes could support a campaign designed to degrade Taiwan defenses, neutralize its military and political leadership, and break its will to fight before the United States and other nations could intervene. To attempt these effects, China could employ SRBMs to saturate Taiwan’s air defense system, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, and communications facilities.