I did the rounds of a bunch of domestic fund managers and analysts yesterday and they all agreed that when it comes to a safe, long-term bet on China’s stock markets that there are really only about five companies worth investing in.

Naturally they all had distinct strategies for short-term gains, eyeing different sectors and stock cycles, but they all came up with an identical five safehouses for money. There are no prizes for matching their picks because they are probably pretty obvious to most China watchers; the trick is simply knowing when the time is right to buy into them.

For some, it’s best to get in now. For others, a slight correction in the near future could see a short but modest decline in the price of entry.

But for a real safe bet, you can’t go past keeping your money in the bank; all believed the veracity of a current rumor that the RMB will be allowed to appreciate 5% against the greenback over the next 12 months. Some read it as “by at least 5%”, others as “by up to 5%”, but they were all convinced the pace of change would accelerate.

China’s willingness to let the RMB appreciate seems to be inversely proportional to the ferocity of calls from abroad for revaluation. New US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson understands this well, and has given China room to preserve face and enact reform at its own pace.

Paulson’s strategy appears to be working. As long as the newly Democrat-controlled US House of Representatives doesn’t rock the boat in the near future, I will bypass the markets and keep my RMB in the bank.

There are heftier gains to be had, but as an unwilling holder of offshore debt, that 5% means more money for my bank.

It may have been a meeting between the respective leaders of New Zealand and Germany, but it is perhaps not surprising that China popped up as one of the key topics of discussion in Berlin today.

It is probably fair to say that the two countries are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the threat and opportunity afforded by China’s emergence as an economic juggernaut, as this article in the New Zealand Herald makes clear.

As a traditional powerhouse of global manufacturing, Germany has perhaps lost, and stands to lose, as much as anybody from the rise of China. On the other hand, little New Zealand is shaping to become the first developed country to sign a free-trade agreement with its Asia-Pacific neighbour.

According to New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark, German Federal President Horst Koehler believes there are two views within Germany on how it should interact with China. “One was containment and the other was engagement,” Clark said.

New Zealand would only contemplate engagement, she said. The reason for just one view? Because New Zealand gutted its own manufacturing sector in the 1980s as it took on the mantle of lead crusader for globalization and the free market, well before China roared into view. With nothing left to protect, New Zealand has been focusing on leaping up the value chain, cracking open export markets and ensuring its own consumers prefer to “buy NZ made”.

Now it is reaping the benefits when it comes to dealing with China. “We don’t have a large-scale manufacturing sector that’s at risk,” Clark told the newspaper. “We’ve developed a niche manufacturing capacity, which will succeed by staying at the high-value end of that industry. So, we have a somewhat different perspective.”

Amen to that I say, looking forward to my imported dinner tonight of tasty New Zealand lamb, potatoes smeared with New Zealand butter, a nice bottle of Marlborough sauvignon blanc to wash it down, and perhaps a platter of Kiwi cheese and fruit to finish off.

All courtesy of my local supermarket and the neo-liberal agenda that painfully tore my country apart in the 1980s, but also set it well on the path to a relatively painless free-trade agreement with China in the not-too-distant future.