As a former resident of Chengdu*, the sustained coverage of my ex-home in English-language media (which I suspect has only just begun) has caught my attention. For those looking for good on-the-ground coverage of what is going on in Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Wenchuan and the surrounding area, might I suggest the following links:

This report and this audio slideshow on the effects of the earthquake by FT correspondent (and China Economic Review alumnus) Jamil Anderlini:

In Dujiangyan, two rows of soldiers and police held distraught parents back from the site of the collapse, where scores of soldiers sifted through rubble looking for more of the estimated 900 children buried in the rubble.

Each time a child’s body emerged, four soldiers covered the face with cloth and carried it on broken doors or other makeshift stretchers down a human corridor of panicking relatives and deposited it in the mud for the family to claim.

“I can’t take this,” said one soldier as he hurried away from a corpse and back to the rubble.

National Public Radio’s Chengdu Diary blog. By sheer coincidence, the NPR crew have been in Chengdu since the start of the month, joined recently by Robert Siegel (”Support for NPR is provided by the Ford Foundation …”), in preparation for a full week of broadcasts from the city scheduled for next week. Needless to say, what started out as a run-of-the-mill show on daily life in China (complete with snippets on traditional Chinese instruments) took a dramatic turn for them on Monday (here’s a recording of one of Melissa Block’s interviews being interrupted by the actual quake. I couldn’t hear the clip myself, though I mainly blame that on the woeful RealPlayer software).

I’ll be listening next week.

Photo by Art Silverman, NPR

Other posts from Chengdu Diary:
Caught in the Earthquake
A Horrific Scene at a Middle School in Dujiangyan
Meeting Survivors on the Road

*I admittedly have a soft spot for the area, and heartily encourage everyone to contribute what they can to the Chinese Red Cross (info here on how to donate) to help in relief efforts.
UPDATE: With thanks to the China Law Blog, Cn Reviews has a comprehensive list of ways to donate (36 and counting) here.

First views on the quake from economists and analysts we follow regularly. Here’s Deutsche Bank’s Jun Ma, greater China chief economist, and Moody’s Economy.com’s Sherman Chan, an economist who covers China for the research firm:

Macro view

Deutsche Bank: “At the macroeconomic level, our current view is that the impact is limited … The equity market may be hurt by the rising uncertainties related to earnings impact and liquidity flows.”

Moody’s Economy: “Although the earthquake has caused major disruption only to the Sichuan province, which represents a relatively modest share of the country’s GDP, the economic impact of the earthquake to China as a whole is likely less severe compared to the snowstorm. Nevertheless, the earthquake has shaken market confidence.”

Sector and company view

DB: Sichuan Expressway (107.HK) will see slower traffic growth, Dongfang Electric (1072.HK) has major production bases in Sichuan. China Telecom (728.HK) is the worst hit of the telcos, the affected area represents about 10% of its fixed line network. The quake will also affect 7% of China Mobile’s relay network. Sinopec (386.HK) has a Sichuan gas project under development that will account for about 7% of FY10 revenue. Insurance firms, property companies with Sichuan and Chongqing in their portfolios. Cement makers like Shui On Cement (983.HK) and Anhui Conch (914.HK) could benefit.

ME: “The most direct impact is the disruption to economic activity due to problems with transport, communications and power supplies. In relation to business operations, the most affected by the disaster will be the manufacturing, retail, transport and tourism sectors. However, China’s construction and engineering industries will be able to take advantage of the massive reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure in coming months.

Quick updates on the quake’s economic and financial impact from the news so far:

66 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen were suspended from trading today, says financial wire XFN Asia.

45 of the companies are listed in Shanghai and the rest in Shenzhen. The Shanghai exchange said it could not contact the suspended companies in Sichuan and Chongqing, while the Shenzhen exchange said some of the companies, based in Sichuan province, couldn’t yet disclose the quake’s impact on their business.

Dow Jones’ MarketWatch reported that the Shanghai Composite Index was down nearly 3% this afternoon with China Life and China Southern Airlines dropping around 5%. China Life’s H-shares fell slightly, by nearly 1%.

Bloomberg reports that Petrochina’s A-shares fell 3.4%, despite the company stating that there hasn’t been a “huge impact” on business because of the quake. The government has ordered oil wells shut in quake-hit areas. Another story reports that aluminum smelters in the province are doing alright, the Central China railway line remains closed, and a 5.5GW drop in power demand (1% of national generating capacity) because of downed transmission lines and damaged power plants.

The death toll from the quake is around 10,000, according to Xinhua

See Shanghaiist for continuous updates on the quake, including speedy translations from Chinese-language media, and information on donating to the Red Cross.

A few good posts over on Paul Midler’s The China Game blog over the last couple days. In the first, he reproduces a letter from a reader drawing an important distinction between China’s financial and “real” economies, and how exposed each is to external forces:

One point that I think needs to be borne in mind is the difference between the financial economy and the real economy. In China’s case, the financial economy is not integrated into the global economy (you can’t move large sums in to invest or repatriate or invest-out large sums without bureaucratic approval and good reasons), which is one reason people say Western financial conditions have limited impact on China. This is why many large financial firms are clamoring to get into China, not only because it’s a promising new market but because it represents diversification in the way few overseas markets do these days. As far as the real economy of imports and exports etc. goes, I think there’s little doubt that China is significantly integrated into the global trading system, for good and for ill.

In another post, Midler highlights a welcome introduction to the (English-language) China blogosphere, Pomfret’s China written by John Pomfret of the Washington Post, formerly that paper’s China bureau chief and the author of Chinese Lessons, which is a great read. He’s only starting, and like most blogs that have mentioned T!b3t in the past several weeks, it’s already attracted swarms of comments that are as valuable for their insight into the massive support the crackdown has received in China (and by native Chinese abroad) as they are disposable for the quality of their reasoning.

Finally, there is an interesting post from today on a Chinese drug firm that may have accidentally disqualified the Greek weightlifting team from performing in the Olympics by supplying it with “tainted” health supplements:

A surprise inspection of the Greek team by the World Anti-Doping Agency revealed that 11 of the team’s athletes had unapproved substances in their systems. The Chinese firm has already apologized for providing the bad product, saying: “We send [sic] you L-tyrosine mixed with something else that it [sic] only for research purposes.”

A quite fascinating post from the folks at 2point6billion.com by Josh Gartner of China Expat magazine on the ancient trade route, through Tibet, between China and India:

The western media has meticulously documented China’s recent economic explosion. Yet for a long time many wondered why India, the world’s second most populous country, lagged so far behind. Some surmised it had something to do with cultural differences, while other postulated that the problem was political. In the last few years, this debate has disappeared as quickly as India’s record of slow growth has. But a new question has emerged: will China and India be able to move past their rivalry and become partners once again?

The two countries share long borders, primarily along the edge of Tibet, and have coexisted in one form or another for thousands of years. Tea and Buddhism have flowed across their mountainous boundaries and defined their cultures since before Mohammed was born. Yet in the modern era, bilateral trade has remained surprisingly minimal until quite recently. As of 2000, it amounted to only US$2.9 billion, or slightly more than 1980 levels of Sino-US trade, well before China had liberalized its economy.

In the last six years, though, things have changed considerably. China and India’s once precarious relationship, while still somewhat fragile, is gaining strength quickly. Trade has gone up nearly nine-fold since the turn of the millennium, and Beijing is now India’s second most important trading partner by volume (after the US). While specific political differences contributed to the late start of modern economic cooperation, trade has been difficult, yet critical, throughout their shared history.

(more…)

An interesting story this morning in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required, or read our brief for free): state broadcaster China Central TV (CCTV) will ban all images of pigs in its broadcasts to avoid offending Muslims:

“China is a multi-ethnic country,” the network’s ad department said in a notice sent to ad agencies late Tuesday. “To show respect to Islam, and upon guidance from higher levels of the government, CCTV will keep any ‘pig’ images off the TV screen.”

Sounds odd - at least at first. Isn’t the pig China’s favorite animal to eat, not to mention a traditional symbol of prosperity, luck and fertility? And since when has the government been especially cautious about offending Muslims? The article answers your questions:

Chinese TV’s ban comes in the wake of the killing of 18 Muslims by police in the country’s remote northwest earlier this month. The government accused the men of being terrorists. Muslim activists have called for an independent investigation.

The policy shift offers a window on the inner workings of China’s governmental machinery, known for its surprise edicts and abrupt shifts in regulation. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the ban applies just to ads or to all TV content. And some analysts said the government could still reverse itself, or offer exceptions to the ban.

Advertising-industry executives in China say senior Communist Party leaders recently told CCTV that references to pigs should be avoided to prevent conflicts among ethnic groups. CCTV’s move was then announced to advertisers just as many were finalizing their spots for the holiday, which begins Feb. 18.

What’s next? Calling off the Year of the Dragon to avoid negative imagery associated with the mythical beast by some foreigners? At least advertisers will be able to air their piggy commercials on provincial and local TV networks, the article says. It ends with this classic line from Ma Yunfu, vice chairman of the China Islamic Association:

“We don’t want to see any misunderstanding like the one 12 years ago,” during the last Year of the Pig, says Mr Ma. At that time, Mr Ma says, some newspapers published a tale in which a pig saves the life of Muhammad. “That aroused a lot of anger,” he says.

A friend of mine is riding a motorcycle across China for charity.

The bike he rides is China’s famous Chang Jiang sidecar model, pictured here in Zhejiang province about two weeks ago. Since then Chris has had the bike repaired innumerable times, crossed the Three Gorges Dam, rode through Yeti country in Hubei (forbidden for foreigners), seen a Muslim funeral and a noodle factory, and met many a kind-hearted stranger. His goal is to reach Xining, Qinghai.

Chris is riding to raise awareness and money for Hands on Shanghai’s Rising Stars program, which helps students from migrant worker families in Shanghai by pairing them with young tutors and mentors from more affluent circumstances. Sort of like a Big Brother/Sister foundation for Shanghai’s poor. You can donate by visiting Chris’s website.

Chris is blogging about his adventures on Shanghaiist and his latest report is here, with links to earlier reports. Also, check out his pictures on Flickr.

His trip reminds me of an editor at our own paper who is currently walking to Tibet.

So, the US is concerned that China is using funding for infrastructure deals to acquire energy resources from “rogue” states like Iran and Sudan.

Should this concern be construed as friendly advice to Beijing that it should follow the lead of the democracy-inspiring leader of the free world and blacklist these theocracies as part of the battle to fight oppression and tyranny wherever it raises its ugly, towel-covered head.

Or should it be construed as friendly advice to Beijing on how to ensure that if you are gonna get oil, you may as well make a buck while you are at it.

Rather than buying oil and investing in a country’s infrastructure to sweeten the deal, it’s much more productive to bomb all hell out of the country’s infrastructure, foster an insurgency to ensure your “peace-keeping” abilities remain in demand, steal the target country’s oil, and then give yourself a big fat contract to rebuild the country’s infrastructure as a sweetener for the deal.

The tactic has certainly worked for US oil giant Exxon Mobil and reconstruction expert Halliburton. It may not have worked for US soldiers and oil users, but China has the benefit of a free press (free to print what the government wants it to print) and 1.3 billion potential soldiers so no big deal.

But the US is preaching to the converted. Hasn’t it heard of the Xinjiang Uygur “Autonomous” Region. China is well ahead of the liberation curve.

Watch the free oil flow.

Postscript: I had forgotten when I posted this entry that today is September 12, which is a very significant day. It is also, for entirely unrelated reasons, fives years and one day after the attacks on the World Trade Center. As such, my post is incredibly insensitive. Surely, this is the week we should remember the “liberation” of Iraq is about 9/11, not oil.

In China’s rugged northwest, renewable energy is opening a window on the world for nomadic Uighurs, as well as improving the health of their children by cutting down on coal burning. This story in the Christian Science Monitor talks about a government program to subsidize personal solar panels for familes in Xinjiang. The writer explains how Gulinar Sitkan, a woman of Kazakh descent, now uses her solar panel to power electric bulbs for her children to study late into the night. No longer do they need to rely on smoky oil lamps. The family also uses solar power to watch television:

“My favorite program is the international news, because I can find out what’s happening now,” says Sitkan, her face weathered from the rigors of nomadic life. “Before we had a TV, it would take months for us to find out about news. These are big changes.”

Indeed they are big changes on a personal level. But China’s use of coal is so dominant, and its appetite for energy so voracious, that efforts like these need to be reproduced thousands of times over if they are to have national effects. Unfortunately, the government’s plan of increasing renewables’ role in the country’s energy consumption to 15% by 2020 means that solar power - which produces a relatively meager output with today’s technology - will be eclipsed by hyrdropower. And that means more dams, more disrupted ecosystems, and more displaced people.

But small victories are still victories. New technology will increase the efficiency of solar power, and certainly Ms Sitkan is happy with the change in her life. Furthermore, there is an educational benefit in her family’s case. After seeing more of the world up close on television, the mother decided that it was essential for her children to learn Mandarin to increase their prospects. This attitude was confirmed to me by a woman who has worked in Tibet for many years: despite the heavy-handed efforts of the Chinese authorities to flood the western regions with ethnic Han, many minority parents still see it as beneficial for their children to learn Mandarin. Just like parents everywhere, they want their kids to have an easier life than they did. Certainly renewable energy can play a part in that effort.

An old friend of mine from Kunming is involved in a project that is recreating the old Southern Silk Route in Yunnan province. The project involves a caravan of yaks, horsemen, and many ethnic minorities following the old trail from Xishuangbanna up through Zhongdian and into Tibet, promoting their various brands of teas. But it is more than a mere marketing ploy. The caravan has raised over US$100,000 to build schools in the very poor regions through which they have traveled, mostly through auctions of the tea, some of which is rare and treasured. And they throw huge parties along the way. For more information about the caravan and some great pictures, visit my friend’s blog here.