COMMODITIES REVIEW: Constrained global supplies

China-linked commodity markets sent a mixed signal over the past week: externally driven energy and metals inflation strengthened even as domestic demand remained soft. Brent crude was the standout mover, while copper climbed to record territory on tightening global availability and tariff concerns. The contrast matters for China, where higher imported input costs are feeding into producer prices without yet reflecting a broad recovery in consumption. 

ICE Brent crude settled at $101.21 a barrel on September 9, up $5.58, or 5.8%, from $95.63 on September 2. Renewed US-Iran fighting, attacks on tankers and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure pushed the benchmark above $100 as traders reassessed the security of Gulf supply. The rally came despite weakness from the world’s largest crude importer: Chinese customs data showed August imports down 23.4% year-on-year, while Sinopec’s research arm expects China’s oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026. China’s weakening consumption is therefore acting as an important counterweight to the geopolitical risk premium now lifting global prices. 

Copper also strengthened sharply. The SHFE continuous copper contract ended September 9 around 111,080 RMB (approximately $16,560) per tonne, compared with roughly 108,650 RMB ($16,200) on September 2, a gain of about 2,430 RMB, or 2.2%. International prices rose even faster: three-month LME copper traded around $14,628 per tonne on September 9, versus $14,133.50 a week earlier, up $494.50, or 3.5%. The stronger overseas move reflected US tariff fears diverting copper into American warehouses and tightening non-U.S. supply, while low inventories and firm electrical and grid demand supported Chinese prices. China remains crucial because its enormous refining and manufacturing base determines how quickly global copper tightness translates into physical shortages. 

Gold was comparatively steady. Spot bullion stood at $4,414.30 an ounce on September 9, up $37.89, or 0.9%, from $4,376.41 on September 2. Middle East risk and a softer dollar supported demand, but expectations that elevated oil prices could keep global interest rates higher limited the advance. 

Overall, the week’s moves point less to a Chinese demand rebound than to imported inflation and constrained global supply. The next test is whether $100-plus oil begins to further squeeze Chinese industrial margins, while copper traders will watch whether tariff-driven stockpiling continues to overpower still-muted underlying demand.